Takeaways on Marquette poll: Crowley dominating independents, data centers are loathed, and Tiffany is an extremist

It is likely safe to say in a deeply divided swing state like Wisconsin, the race for governor is too close to call, but Marquette University Law School provided a snapshot of the electorate in a new poll released Aug 26. 

The poll shows Democratic candidate for governor, Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, leading Republican opponent, U.S. Congressman Tom Tiffany, by 5% among likely voters. 

Among registered voters, the race gets even closer with both candidates tied with the same amount of support. 

In the final days of summer, this poll is the first of the general election campaign. The poll was conducted Aug. 12 to Aug. 20. Election Day is Nov. 3. 

More than the governor’s race was polled, including asking respondents whether or not they viewed politicians as favorable or unfavorable. Crowley and Gov. Tony Evers received the only net positive favorability ranking among the people and institutions polled. 

The duo were successful in their attempt to turn undecided voters into Crowley voters in the final days of the primary election. The razor-thin margin left a split party, but polling suggests Crowley is uniting the left, although this poll seemed to lack significant Francesca Hong or democratic socialist respondents. 

The party split is one of many issues polled by the school. Here are some takeaways. 

Data centers remain wildly unpopular 

Data centers remain a non-starter for Wisconsin voters. They don’t want them, they believe there are more cons than pros, and two-thirds of voters want a moratorium. 

About 67% of respondents favor a ban on data center construction for at least one year. Republicans are almost evenly split while substantial majorities of independents and Democrats support a moratorium. 

Hong ran on a moratorium, while Crowley has refused to embrace that policy as Tiffany hits him on the issue as well. But Tiffany accepted political donations from a data center lobbyist, while Crowley has accepted money from labor unions building data centers. 

If there was any outlier in this poll, it was once again data centers. They were unpopular before the primary election and remain unpopular after. No one should want to be the “pro data center” candidate. 

Tiffany may be most conservative gubernatorial candidate ever

Tiffany has attempted to run away from his record in recent weeks, but the evidence is in the very public votes he took as a member of Congress and a state legislator. 

His voting record is considered to be among the most conservative in Congress. He’s proposed many issues that are sometimes out of step with his own party, including proposing splitting up the Department of Natural Resources and having a key role in passing anti-worker policies.

Respondents were asked how they viewed each candidate’s political ideology. Tiffany is described as very conservative by 37%, conservative by 39%, and moderate by 5%. For Crowley, 16% say he is very liberal, with 32% calling him liberal and 23% saying he is moderate.

Polling shows that Tiffany is the extremist in the race. 

Crowley polling phenomenally among ‘independents’ 

The “independents” also weighed in during this poll. 

Crowley has to be very happy with this number —  likely independent voters prefer Crowley by 55% to 16% for Tiffany.

This goes back to favorability as well. Although many are still learning of both candidates, Crowley has a +7 favorable rating while Tiffany is -4. 

In a state like Wisconsin, elections can come down to a few thousand votes and currently leading independents by a ratio of 4 to 1 is a promising sign for Crowley. But there is a lot of ballgame left. 

Are Democrats coming together to defeat MAGA? 

Among likely Democratic voters, 98% say they will vote for Crowley, while 91% of likely Republican voters say they will vote for Tiffany.

If the polling does address the split on the political Left in America and in Wisconsin, then this answer would be a positive sign for Crowley as nearly every likely Democrat voter in the poll said they are going to vote for Crowley. 

If the internet is any indication, there remain many leftist and progressive supporters of Hong’s that haven’t committed to Crowley just yet and he’ll need them to win in a general election. 

The main issue at hand was data centers, but Crowley had since put forward more stances in the days since the election. 

It is also worth noting that the poll may be slanted against Hong supporters. Her favorability rating and democratic socialism had the lowest favorability rating, but we know more than 300,000 people voted for her in the primary. Hong has since gone on to campaign for Crowley.

Overall, polling is just a snapshot of time and not a clear indication of an election result. The important thing to do is vote on or before Nov. 3.